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Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards

Urheber*innen
/persons/resource/bmerz

Merz,  B.
4.4 Hydrology, 4.0 Geosystems, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Kuhlicke,  Christian
External Organizations;

Kunz,  Michael
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/pittore

Pittore,  Massimiliano
2.6 Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/babeyko

Babeyko,  A. Y.
2.5 Geodynamic Modelling, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Bresch,  David N.
External Organizations;

Domeisen,  Daniela I. V.
External Organizations;

Feser,  Frauke
External Organizations;

Koszalka,  Inga
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/kreib

Kreibich,  H.
4.4 Hydrology, 4.0 Geosystems, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Pantillon,  Florian
External Organizations;

Parolai,  Stefano
External Organizations;

Pinto,  Joaquim G.
External Organizations;

Punge,  Heinz Jürgen
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/rivalta

Rivalta,  E.
2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/kschroet

Schröter,  Kai
4.4 Hydrology, 4.0 Geosystems, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Strehlow,  Karen
External Organizations;

Weisse,  Ralf
External Organizations;

Wurpts,  Andreas
External Organizations;

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Volltexte (frei zugänglich)

5003082.pdf
(Verlagsversion), 5MB

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Zitation

Merz, B., Kuhlicke, C., Kunz, M., Pittore, M., Babeyko, A. Y., Bresch, D. N., Domeisen, D. I. V., Feser, F., Koszalka, I., Kreibich, H., Pantillon, F., Parolai, S., Pinto, J. G., Punge, H. J., Rivalta, E., Schröter, K., Strehlow, K., Weisse, R., Wurpts, A. (2020): Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards. - Reviews of Geophysics, 58, 4, e2020RG000704.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000704


Zitierlink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5003082
Zusammenfassung
Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a two‐fold advantage: it would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures, and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multi‐hazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state‐of‐the‐art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact‐based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe.