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  The new Italian seismic hazard model (MPS19)

Meletti, C., Marzocchi, W., D'amico, V., Lanzano, G., Luzi, L., Martinelli, F., Pace, B., Rovida, A., Taroni, M., Visini, F., Akinci, A., Anzidei, M., Avallone, A., Azzaro, R., Barani, S., Barberi, G., Barreca, G., Basili, R., Bird, P., Bonini, M., Burrato, P., Busetti, M., Camassi, R., Carafa, M. M. C., Cavaliere, A., Cecere, G., Cheloni, D., Chioccarelli, E., Console, R., Corti, G., D'agostino, N., Cin, M. D., D'ambrosio, C., D’amico, M., D’amico, S., Devoti, R., Esposito, A., Faenza, L., Falcone, G., Felicetta, C., Fracassi, U., Franco, L., Galvani, A., Gasperini, P., Gee, R., Capera, A. A. G., Iervolino, I., Kastelic, V., Lai, C. G., Locati, M., Lolli, B., Maesano, F. E., Marchesini, A., Mariucci, M. T., Martelli, L., Massa, M., Metois, M., Monaco, C., Montone, P., Moschetti, M., Murru, M., Pacor, F., Pagani, M., Pasolini, C., Peresan, A., Peruzza, L., Pietrantonio, G., Poli, M. E., Pondrelli, S., Puglia, R., Rebez, A., Riguzzi, F., Roselli, P., Rotondi, R., Russo, E., Sani, F., Santulin, M., Selvaggi, G., Scafidi, D., Selva, J., Sepe, V., Serpelloni, E., Slejko, D., Spallarossa, D., Stallone, A., Tamaro, A., Tarabusi, G., Tiberti, M. M., Tuvè, T., Valensise, G., Vallone, R., Vannoli, P., Vannucci, G., Varini, E., Zanferrari, A., Zuccolo, E., Danciu, L., Schorlemmer, D., Bazzurro, P., Giardini, D., Modena, C., Mulargia, F., Seno, S., Group, T. M. W. (2021): The new Italian seismic hazard model (MPS19). - Annals of Geophysics, 64, 1, SE112.
https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-8579

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Meletti, C.1, Autor
Marzocchi, W.1, Autor
D'amico, V.1, Autor
Lanzano, G.1, Autor
Luzi, L.1, Autor
Martinelli, F.1, Autor
Pace, B.1, Autor
Rovida, A.1, Autor
Taroni, M.1, Autor
Visini, F. 1, Autor
Akinci, A.1, Autor
Anzidei, M.1, Autor
Avallone, A.1, Autor
Azzaro, R.1, Autor
Barani, S.1, Autor
Barberi, G.1, Autor
Barreca, G.1, Autor
Basili, R.1, Autor
Bird, P.1, Autor
Bonini, M.1, Autor
Burrato, P.1, AutorBusetti, M.1, AutorCamassi, R.1, AutorCarafa, M. M. C.1, AutorCavaliere, A.1, AutorCecere, G.1, AutorCheloni, D.1, AutorChioccarelli, E.1, AutorConsole, R.1, AutorCorti, G.1, AutorD'agostino, N.1, AutorCin, M. D.1, AutorD'ambrosio, C.1, AutorD’amico, M.1, AutorD’amico, S.1, AutorDevoti, R.1, AutorEsposito, A.1, AutorFaenza, L.1, AutorFalcone, G.1, AutorFelicetta, C.1, AutorFracassi, U.1, AutorFranco, L.1, AutorGalvani, A.1, AutorGasperini, P.1, AutorGee, R.1, AutorCapera, A. A. G.1, AutorIervolino, I.1, AutorKastelic, V.1, AutorLai, C. G.1, AutorLocati, M.1, AutorLolli, B.1, AutorMaesano, F. E.1, AutorMarchesini, A.1, AutorMariucci, M. T.1, AutorMartelli, L.1, AutorMassa, M.1, AutorMetois, M.1, AutorMonaco, C.1, AutorMontone, P.1, AutorMoschetti, M.1, AutorMurru, M.1, AutorPacor, F.1, AutorPagani, M.1, AutorPasolini, C.1, AutorPeresan, A.1, AutorPeruzza, L.1, AutorPietrantonio, G.1, AutorPoli, M. E.1, AutorPondrelli, S.1, AutorPuglia, R.1, AutorRebez, A.1, AutorRiguzzi, F.1, AutorRoselli, P.1, AutorRotondi, R.1, AutorRusso, E.1, AutorSani, F.1, AutorSantulin, M.1, AutorSelvaggi, G.1, AutorScafidi, D.1, AutorSelva, J.1, AutorSepe, V.1, AutorSerpelloni, E.1, AutorSlejko, D.1, AutorSpallarossa, D.1, AutorStallone, A.1, AutorTamaro, A.1, AutorTarabusi, G.1, AutorTiberti, M. M.1, AutorTuvè, T.1, AutorValensise, G.1, AutorVallone, R.1, AutorVannoli, P.1, AutorVannucci, G.1, AutorVarini, E.1, AutorZanferrari, A.1, AutorZuccolo, E.1, AutorDanciu, L.1, AutorSchorlemmer, Danijel2, Autor              Bazzurro, P.1, AutorGiardini, D.1, AutorModena, C.1, AutorMulargia, F.1, AutorSeno, S.1, AutorGroup, The MPS Working1, Autor mehr..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
22.6 Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum, ou_146032              

Inhalt

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Schlagwörter: Seismic hazard; Epistemic uncertainty; Ensemble modeling; Probabilistic methods; Italy
 Zusammenfassung: We describe the main structure and outcomes of the new probabilistic seismic hazard model for Italy, MPS19 [Modello di Pericolosità Sismica, 2019]. Besides to outline the probabilistic framework adopted, the multitude of new data that have been made available after the preparation of the previous MPS04, and the set of earthquake rate and ground motion models used, we give particular emphasis to the main novelties of the modeling and the MPS19 outcomes. Specifically, we (i) introduce a novel approach to estimate and to visualize the epistemic uncertainty over the whole country; (ii) assign weights to each model components (earthquake rate and ground motion models) according to a quantitative testing phase and structured experts’ elicitation sessions; (iii) test (retrospectively) the MPS19 outcomes with the horizontal peak ground acceleration observed in the last decades, and the macroseismic intensities of the last centuries; (iv) introduce a pioneering approach to build MPS19_cluster, which accounts for the effect of earthquakes that have been removed by declustering. Finally, to make the interpretation of MPS19 outcomes easier for a wide range of possible stakeholders, we represent the final result also in terms of probability to exceed 0.15 g in 50 years.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 20212021
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: 29
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: -
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.4401/ag-8579
GFZPOF: p4 T3 Restless Earth
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Annals of Geophysics
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, oa-diamond, Scopus bis 2022
 Urheber:
Affiliations:
Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 64 (1) Artikelnummer: SE112 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals28
Publisher: Editrice Compositori