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  Potential Influences of Volcanic Eruptions on Future Global Land Monsoon Precipitation Changes

Man, W., Zuo, M., Zhou, T., Fasullo, J., Bethke, I. (2023): Potential Influences of Volcanic Eruptions on Future Global Land Monsoon Precipitation Changes, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-3053

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Item Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5020454 Version Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5020454_1
Genre: Conference Paper

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 Creators:
Man, Wenmin1, Author
Zuo, Meng1, Author
Zhou, Tianjun1, Author
Fasullo, John1, Author
Bethke, Ingo1, Author
Affiliations:
1IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations, ou_5011304              

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 Abstract: Understanding and predicting future global monsoon changes is critically important owing to its impacts on about two-thirds of population. Robust post-eruption signals in the monsoon climate raise the question of their potential for a role in future climate. However, major volcanic eruptions are generally not included in current projection scenarios because they are inherently unpredictable events. By using sixty plausible eruption scenarios sampled from reconstructed volcanic proxies over the past 2,500 years, we revealed the volcanic impacts on the future changes of summer precipitation over global and sub-monsoon regions. Episodic volcanic forcing not only leads to a 10% overall reduction of the centennial global land monsoon (GLM) precipitation, but also causes larger ensemble spread (~20%) compared to no-volcanic and constant background-volcanic scenarios. Moreover, volcanic activity is projected to delay the time of emergence of anthropogenic GLM precipitation changes by five years on average over about 60% of the GLM area. Our results demonstrate the added value of incorporating major volcanic eruptions in monsoon projections.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-07-112023-07-11
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
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 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.57757/IUGG23-3053
 Degree: -

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Title: XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
Place of Event: Berlin
Start-/End Date: 2023-07-11 - 2023-07-20

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Title: XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
Source Genre: Proceedings
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Publ. Info: Potsdam : GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
Pages: - Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: - Identifier: -