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Potential Influences of Volcanic Eruptions on Future Global Land Monsoon Precipitation Changes

Urheber*innen

Man,  Wenmin
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Zuo,  Meng
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Zhou,  Tianjun
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Fasullo,  John
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Bethke,  Ingo
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Zitation

Man, W., Zuo, M., Zhou, T., Fasullo, J., Bethke, I. (2023): Potential Influences of Volcanic Eruptions on Future Global Land Monsoon Precipitation Changes, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-3053


Zitierlink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5020454
Zusammenfassung
Understanding and predicting future global monsoon changes is critically important owing to its impacts on about two-thirds of population. Robust post-eruption signals in the monsoon climate raise the question of their potential for a role in future climate. However, major volcanic eruptions are generally not included in current projection scenarios because they are inherently unpredictable events. By using sixty plausible eruption scenarios sampled from reconstructed volcanic proxies over the past 2,500 years, we revealed the volcanic impacts on the future changes of summer precipitation over global and sub-monsoon regions. Episodic volcanic forcing not only leads to a 10% overall reduction of the centennial global land monsoon (GLM) precipitation, but also causes larger ensemble spread (~20%) compared to no-volcanic and constant background-volcanic scenarios. Moreover, volcanic activity is projected to delay the time of emergence of anthropogenic GLM precipitation changes by five years on average over about 60% of the GLM area. Our results demonstrate the added value of incorporating major volcanic eruptions in monsoon projections.