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Abstract:
Climate Responses to Tambora-Size Volcanic Eruption and the Impact of Warming ClimateThe climatic consequences of large volcanic eruptions depend on the direct radiative perturbation and the climate variability that amplifies or dampens the initial perturbation. Potential climate responses to future eruptions, however, have been rarely studied. Here we show perturbation of Tambora-size causes significant but no inter-scenario different global average climate responses, by using Community Earth System Model simulations under preindustrial and RCP8.5 scenarios. Regionally we find severe reduction in African and Asian-Australian monsoon rainfall and emerge of El Niño-like responses, largely due to the land-ocean thermal contrast mechanism. Global warming significantly amplifies such El Niño-like responses, which feed on the enhanced climatology atmospheric moisture and cause higher sensitivity of monsoon circulation to radiative forcing in the tropics. We also find prolonged Asian-Australian monsoon suppression associated with the enhanced westerly anomalies over the Pacific, suggesting the complexity of climate responses and feedbacks to external forcing under future climate.
