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  Towards a probabilistic parametrisation of Mesoscale Convective Systems

Muetzelfeldt, M., Zhang, Z., Plant, B., Woollings, T., Christensen, H. (2023): Towards a probabilistic parametrisation of Mesoscale Convective Systems, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-4592

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Item Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5021002 Version Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5021002_2
Genre: Conference Paper

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 Creators:
Muetzelfeldt, Mark1, Author
Zhang, Zhixiao1, Author
Plant, Bob1, Author
Woollings, Tim1, Author
Christensen, Hannah1, Author
Affiliations:
1IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations, ou_5011304              

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 Abstract: A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) is an organisation of many convective thunderstorms, each a few km in scale, into a coherent entity on scales of hundreds of km. Global numerical weather prediction models and climate models cannot represent MCS. These models operate in the 'grey zone' where the phenomenon occurs at scales similar to the grid scale. This means that MCS are not fully resolved, but cannot be parametrised using conventional approaches, which assume that the unresolved process occurs on scales much smaller than the grid scale. In this presentation I will outline progress towards developing a new probabilistic (i.e. stochastic) parametrisation of MCS. Our focus is on capturing the upscale dynamical impacts of such systems. We combine a new global satellite-derived database of MCS with analysis products to assess the predictability of MCS formation and evolution conditioned on the large scales, to make the scheme state-dependent. I will describe preliminary tests of the scheme in the UK Met Office’s Unified Model, coupled to the new CoMorph convection scheme, and outline plans for further developments.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-07-112023-07-11
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.57757/IUGG23-4592
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Title: XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
Place of Event: Berlin
Start-/End Date: 2023-07-11 - 2023-07-20

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Title: XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
Source Genre: Proceedings
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Publ. Info: Potsdam : GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
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