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Conference Paper

Towards a probabilistic parametrisation of Mesoscale Convective Systems

Authors

Muetzelfeldt,  Mark
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Zhang,  Zhixiao
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Plant,  Bob
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Woollings,  Tim
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Christensen,  Hannah
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Muetzelfeldt, M., Zhang, Z., Plant, B., Woollings, T., Christensen, H. (2023): Towards a probabilistic parametrisation of Mesoscale Convective Systems, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-4592


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5021002
Abstract
A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) is an organisation of many convective thunderstorms, each a few km in scale, into a coherent entity on scales of hundreds of km. Global numerical weather prediction models and climate models cannot represent MCS. These models operate in the 'grey zone' where the phenomenon occurs at scales similar to the grid scale. This means that MCS are not fully resolved, but cannot be parametrised using conventional approaches, which assume that the unresolved process occurs on scales much smaller than the grid scale. In this presentation I will outline progress towards developing a new probabilistic (i.e. stochastic) parametrisation of MCS. Our focus is on capturing the upscale dynamical impacts of such systems. We combine a new global satellite-derived database of MCS with analysis products to assess the predictability of MCS formation and evolution conditioned on the large scales, to make the scheme state-dependent. I will describe preliminary tests of the scheme in the UK Met Office’s Unified Model, coupled to the new CoMorph convection scheme, and outline plans for further developments.