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Abstract:
Coastal meadows are an ecologically important habitat type and provide suitable conditions for a wide variety of species, many of which are specialized to live in this environment. In addition, many bird species are dependent on coastal meadows as nesting and feeding areas. Coastal meadows remain open and treeless either because of grazing or naturally due to the effect of waves, sea level variations, and sea ice.Because of their location on low-lying ground at the immediate vicinity of the seashore, coastal meadows are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise. We investigate this vulnerability and potential adaptation on the northern (Finnish) coast of the Gulf of Finland. The rate of land uplift is 3-4 mm/a in the area, which approximately equals the current rate of sea level rise. However, by 2100 mean sea level in the region is projected to rise by 15, 30 or 60 cm depending on the emission scenario (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, or SSP5-8.5, respectively). Even a higher rise is possible.Due to the relatively steep topography, the coastal zone in the area is rather narrow and coastal meadows are predominantly small. When the sea level rises, the meadows can adapt by moving inland, if there is suitable low-lying open space and the spreading is not prevented by roads, other infrastructure, or rocky terrain. In this analysis, we utilize geospatial data of habitat types and land use, a digital elevation model, and projections of mean sea level rise to investigate the adaptation potential of coastal meadows.
