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Abstract:
The earthquakes that struck eastern Türkiye and Syria on 6 February 2023 force us to evaluate the models of seismic hazard and risk developed at the European scale for the region, specifically the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20, Danciu et al.. 2021) and European Seismic Risk Model (ESRM20, Crowley et al.. 2021). We first verified that the ruptures associated to the two main earthquakes are present within the inventory of ruptures within the source model (the earthquake rupture forecasts or ERFs) for the East Anatolian Fault (first event) and Sürgü-Cardak Fault (second event. Ruptures close in magnitude and dimension to those observed were present in the ESHM20 ERFs. Preliminary ground motion observations were found to be consistent in their prediction of the expected shaking and its attenuation. Recorded near-fault ground motions also suggest strong pulse-like behaviour, indicating the need for such phenomena to be better captured in the GMMs.We have finally run scenario risk calculations using the ESRSM20 site, exposure and vulnerability models for the two main earthquakes. Expected fatalities were lower than those reported at the time of writing; however, many factors contribute to this. Further analysis is on-going to understand the difference, but critical areas for future improvement to the risk models should include state-dependent fragility, modelling of further epistemic uncertainty in exposure and vulnerability, and inclusion of spatial- and temporal correlations in ground motions across a region. List of ESHM20 and ESRM20 core team members (all co-authors of this abstract) on www.efehr.com
