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Abstract:
The variation of occurrence of the Atlantic Hurricanes (AHU) over Atlantic and East Caribbean region and Tropical Cyclones (TC) over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea during 1979 to 2018 has been studied in this paper. A correlation and regression analysis has also been done between solar activity and the occurrence of Atlantic hurricanes and Tropical cyclones in Indian Ocean. As a proxy of solar activity the 10.7cm solar flux (F10.7) and the Sun spot number (SSN) has been used . In order to find the correlation , we derived a normalised occurrence rate of AHU based on the data of National Hurricane Center-NOAA and National Ocean services –NOAA. Here also we used the data of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) like Bestpara data, Besttrack data and data from Cyclone e-atlas for TC. Using these distribution , we calculate the correlation coefficient which amount 0.646 for f10.7 solar flux and 0.82 for SSN with significance of 83% in the case of TC. On the other hand the correlation coefficient is 0.65 for f10.7 solar flux and 0.82 for SSN with significance of 78% in the case of AHU. In addition we calculate the correlation coefficient of Lyman Alpha flux and Total solar Irradiance (TSI) with the occurrence of AHU and TC in Indian Ocean regions.
