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  Bayesian inference elucidates fault-system anatomy and resurgent earthquakes induced by continuing saltwater disposal

Vasyura-Bathke, H., Dettmer, J., Biegel, K., Salvage, R. O., Eaton, D., Ackerley, N., Samsonov, S., Dahm, T. (2023): Bayesian inference elucidates fault-system anatomy and resurgent earthquakes induced by continuing saltwater disposal. - Communications Earth and Environment, 4, 407.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01064-1

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Vasyura-Bathke, Hannes1, Author              
Dettmer, Jan2, Author
Biegel, Katherine2, Author
Salvage, Rebecca O.2, Author
Eaton, David2, Author
Ackerley, Nicolas2, Author
Samsonov, Sergey2, Author
Dahm, T.1, Author              
Affiliations:
12.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum, ou_146029              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: An earthquake sequence in western Canada exhibits resurgent aftershocks, possibly in response to persistent, post-mainshock saltwater disposal. Here, we reduce uncertainty in mainshock source parameters with joint inference of interferometric synthetic aperture radar and seismic waveform data, showing that the mainshock nucleated at about 5-km depth, propagating up-dip toward the injection source, and arresting at about 2-km depth. With precise hypocenter relocations and Bayesian inference, we reveal that four subparallel faults were reactivated, likely part of a regional, basement-rooted graben system. The reactivated faults appear to be truncated by a conjugate fault that is misoriented for slip in the present-day stress regime. The nearest saltwater disposal well targets a permeable Devonian reef in direct contact with Precambrian basement, atop a ridge-like uplift. Our observations show that a fault system can be activated more than a decade after saltwater disposal initiation, and continued disposal may lead to a resurgence of seismicity.

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 Dates: 2023-11-032023
 Publication Status: Finally published
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 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-01064-1
GFZPOF: p4 T3 Restless Earth
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
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Title: Communications Earth and Environment
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 4 Sequence Number: 407 Start / End Page: - Identifier: ISSN: 2662-4435
CoNE: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/202009111
Publisher: Springer Nature