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Journal Article

Bayesian inference elucidates fault-system anatomy and resurgent earthquakes induced by continuing saltwater disposal

Authors
/persons/resource/vasbath

Vasyura-Bathke,  Hannes
2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Dettmer,  Jan
External Organizations;

Biegel,  Katherine
External Organizations;

Salvage,  Rebecca O.
External Organizations;

Eaton,  David
External Organizations;

Ackerley,  Nicolas
External Organizations;

Samsonov,  Sergey
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/dahm

Dahm,  T.
2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

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5024405.pdf
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Citation

Vasyura-Bathke, H., Dettmer, J., Biegel, K., Salvage, R. O., Eaton, D., Ackerley, N., Samsonov, S., Dahm, T. (2023): Bayesian inference elucidates fault-system anatomy and resurgent earthquakes induced by continuing saltwater disposal. - Communications Earth and Environment, 4, 407.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01064-1


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5024405
Abstract
An earthquake sequence in western Canada exhibits resurgent aftershocks, possibly in response to persistent, post-mainshock saltwater disposal. Here, we reduce uncertainty in mainshock source parameters with joint inference of interferometric synthetic aperture radar and seismic waveform data, showing that the mainshock nucleated at about 5-km depth, propagating up-dip toward the injection source, and arresting at about 2-km depth. With precise hypocenter relocations and Bayesian inference, we reveal that four subparallel faults were reactivated, likely part of a regional, basement-rooted graben system. The reactivated faults appear to be truncated by a conjugate fault that is misoriented for slip in the present-day stress regime. The nearest saltwater disposal well targets a permeable Devonian reef in direct contact with Precambrian basement, atop a ridge-like uplift. Our observations show that a fault system can be activated more than a decade after saltwater disposal initiation, and continued disposal may lead to a resurgence of seismicity.