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Abstract:
Public earthquake early warning systems (PEEWSs) have the potential to save lives by warning
people of incoming seismic waves up to tens of seconds in advance. Given the scale and geographical
extent of their impact, this potential is greatest for destructive earthquakes, such as the M7.8
Pazarcik (Türkiye) event of 6 February 2023, which killed almost 60,000 people. However, warning
people of imminent strong shaking is particularly difficult for large-magnitude earthquakes because
the warning must be given before the earthquake has reached its final size. Here, we show that the
Earthquake Network (EQN), the first operational smartphone-based PEEWS and apparently the only
one operating during this earthquake, issued a cross-border alert within 12 s of the beginning of the
rupture. A comparison with accelerometer and macroseismic data reveals that, owing to the EQN
alerting strategy, Turkish and Syrian EQN users exposed to intensity IX and above benefitted from a
warning time of up to 58 s before the onset of strong ground shaking. If the alert had been extended
to the entire population, approximately 2.7 million Turkish and Syrian people exposed to a lifethreatening
earthquake would have received a warning ranging from 30 to 66 s in advance.
