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Conference Paper

Can we count on glacial runoff through the 21st century?

Authors

Ultee,  Lizz
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Coats,  Sloan
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Mackay,  Jonathan
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Rounce,  David
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Huss,  Matthias
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Holmgren,  Erik
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Maussion,  Fabien
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Schuster,  Lilian
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Solomon,  Samantha
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Wimberly,  Finn
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Arndt,  Molly
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Ultee, L., Coats, S., Mackay, J., Rounce, D., Huss, M., Holmgren, E., Maussion, F., Schuster, L., Solomon, S., Wimberly, F., Arndt, M. (2023): Can we count on glacial runoff through the 21st century?, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-2402


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5018355
Abstract
Global climate model projections suggest that 21st century climate change will bring significant drying to many regions. Runoff from glaciers is known to smooth water availability in glaciated basins, but glacier model projections show that glaciers will retreat and glacial runoff will diminish worldwide through the 21st century. So, to what extent can we expect retreating glaciers to protect downstream areas from drought as the climate continues to change? Without dynamic glacier ice in global climate models, a comprehensive picture of future drought conditions in glaciated regions has been elusive. In this talk, we present a global assessment of glacial drought buffering for all large-scale river basins. We analyse a modified drought metric computed from one global glacier model (GloGEM) forced by an ensemble of global climate models. We then extend the analysis to two additional global glacier models (PyGEM and OGGM), which allows us to discuss the robustness of runoff projections to the choice of glacier model. These results will highlight both (i) avenues for continued work on global glacier modelling as well as (ii) implications for work with water management practitioners.