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Precipitation event extremity evaluation by a cross-scale weather extremity index across Germany

Authors
/persons/resource/guan

Guan,  Xiaoxiang
4.4 Hydrology, 4.0 Geosystems, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

/persons/resource/bmerz

Merz,  B.
4.4 Hydrology, 4.0 Geosystems, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

/persons/resource/dung

Nguyen,  D.
4.4 Hydrology, 4.0 Geosystems, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Voit,  Paul
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Heistermann,  Maik
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

/persons/resource/vorogus

Vorogushyn,  S.
4.4 Hydrology, 4.0 Geosystems, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Guan, X., Merz, B., Nguyen, D., Voit, P., Heistermann, M., Vorogushyn, S. (2023): Precipitation event extremity evaluation by a cross-scale weather extremity index across Germany, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-2713


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5019178
Abstract
The devastating flood that struck western Germany and surrounding areas in mid-July 2021 was considered one of the most severe natural disasters to hit Europe in the past 50 years. The purpose of this study is to estimate the frequency of the precipitation event responsible for such devastation. To attain this objective, the extremeness of the various precipitation events occurred in the last 71 years (1951-2021) was estimated utilizing the recently developed cross space-time scale weather extremity index xWEI. The calculated xWEI values were then employed to estimate the event probability using the Generalized Extreme Value distribution across Germany. The probability analysis indicates that the 2021 precipitation event, with the estimated return period exceeding 1000 years, is the most extreme event in the Ahr and Erft catchments over the specified period. However, other regions, particularly in northern Germany, have experienced even rarer extreme precipitation events with respect to the xWEI. Further, the study also assessed the capacity of the regional weather generator (RWG) used to reproduce the space-time extremity of precipitation events in terms of their frequency in Germany.