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Conference Paper

Understanding the contribution of climate change to river flooding: an event attribution approach using large ensemble climate simulations

Authors

Hirabayashi,  Yukiko
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Alifu,  Haireti
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Imada,  Yukiko
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Shiogama,  Hideo
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Hirabayashi, Y., Alifu, H., Imada, Y., Shiogama, H. (2023): Understanding the contribution of climate change to river flooding: an event attribution approach using large ensemble climate simulations, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-3028


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5020401
Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change has resulted in changes to the global water cycle, causing more intense precipitation and associated floods. However, the impact of these changes on extreme river floods is unclear due to the complex nature of runoff generation and streamflow. In this study, the impact of human-induced climate change on river floods was analyzed using simulated river discharge from large ensemble climate experiments. The results showed that human-induced climate change altered the probability of 20 out of 52 analyzed flood events, with 14 of these events primarily in Asia and South America being very likely enhanced due to increased heavy precipitation. Conversely, flood events in North/South America, Asia, and Europe were suppressed by human-induced climate change, likely due to reduced snowfall. The findings indicate that the impact of human-induced climate change on flooding has become more prominent in recent years, highlighting the importance of understanding these changes for effective adaptation strategies.