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Abstract

The PAGER project provides space weather predictions that are initiated from observations on the Sun and predicts radiation in space and its effects on satellite infrastructure. Real-time predictions and a historical record of the dynamics of the cold plasma density and ring current allow for evaluation of surface charging, while predictions of relativistic electron fluxes allow for the evaluation of deep dielectric charging. The project provides a 1-2 day probabilistic forecast of ring current and radiation belt environments, which allows satellite operators to respond to predictions that present a significant threat. As a backbone of the project, we use the most advanced codes that currently exist and adapt existing codes to perform ensemble simulations and uncertainty quantification. This project includes a number of innovative tools including data assimilation and machine learning algorithms, new models of the near-Earth electromagnetic wave environment, ensemble predictions of solar wind parameters at L1, and data-driven forecasts of the geomagnetic Kp index and plasma density. The developed codes will be used for realistic modelling of extreme space weather events. The PAGER consortium is made up of leading academic and industry experts in space weather research, space physics, empirical data modelling, and space environment effects on spacecraft from Europe and the US.