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Conference Paper

A model intercomparison project to improve predictions of Mediterranean cyclones

Authors

Pantillon,  Florian
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Davolio,  Silvio
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Avolio,  Elenio
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Carrió,  Diego
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Dafis,  Stavros
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Flaounas,  Emmanouil
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Gonzalez Aleman,  Juan Jesus
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Gray,  Suzanne
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Miglietta,  Mario Marcello
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Patlakas,  Platon
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Pytharoulis,  Ioannis
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Ricard,  Didier
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Ricchi,  Antonio
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Sanchez,  Claudio
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Steeneveld,  Gert-Jan
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Pantillon, F., Davolio, S., Avolio, E., Carrió, D., Dafis, S., Flaounas, E., Gonzalez Aleman, J. J., Gray, S., Miglietta, M. M., Patlakas, P., Pytharoulis, I., Ricard, D., Ricchi, A., Sanchez, C., Steeneveld, G.-J. (2023): A model intercomparison project to improve predictions of Mediterranean cyclones, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-4130


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5021569
Abstract
Cyclones are essential elements of the climate system and water cycle but also major natural hazards in the densely populated Mediterranean basin. In the framework of the COST Action "European network for Mediterranean cyclones in weather and climate - MedCyclones", a model intercomparison project investigates the dynamics and predictability of case studies using modelling setups that are not yet available to operational forecasting systems. The intercomparison involves 10 sets of simulations based on 5 mesoscale models and multiple combinations of physical parameterizations. All sets include the same sensitivity simulations to initial and lateral boundary conditions and horizontal resolution. Here we focus on tropical-like cyclone (Medicane) Ianos that hit Greece in mid September 2020 and was poorly predicted by operational forecasts. Models systematically perform better when initialized from operational IFS analysis data compared to the widely used ERA5 reanalysis. Reducing horizontal grid spacing from 10 km (convection-parameterized) to 2 km (convection-permitting) further improves the cyclone track and intensity. This highlights the critical organization of convection during the early cyclogenesis for the phasing with an upper-level jet. Higher resolution enhances convective activity and favorably preconditions the jet, which controls the subsequent cyclone intensification and evolution.The 10 sets of simulations show robust agreement but also reveal model specificities such as the possible need for a convective parameterization even at 2 km horizontal grid spacing. While they require generalization to other cases of Mediterranean cyclones, the results shall provide guidance for the next generation of global convection-permitting models in weather and climate.