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Featuring the inexactness of Earth sciences in the Anthropocene

Authors

Khatami,  Sina
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

AghaKouchak,  Amir
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Peel,  Murray
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Shyrokaya,  Anastasiya
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Moallemi,  Enayat
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Ault,  Toby
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Papacharalampous,  Georgia
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Tyralis,  Hristos
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Di Baldassarre,  Giuliano
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Khatami, S., AghaKouchak, A., Peel, M., Shyrokaya, A., Moallemi, E., Ault, T., Papacharalampous, G., Tyralis, H., Di Baldassarre, G. (2023): Featuring the inexactness of Earth sciences in the Anthropocene, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-4371


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5021802
Abstract
Co-evolution of human and natural systems is the hallmark of the Anthropocene, where the role of Earth sciences is to explain the dynamics of coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) and develop models to represent and predict their behaviour. The outcomes of these models are needed to inform policy and decision making for climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction, and sustainable management of natural resources. Yet, exact representations and predictions are not attainable for CHANS. CHANS are associated with deep uncertainties—not always/easily quantifiable—to the extent that Earth sciences can be referred to as inexact sciences. Here, we characterise inexactness as a distinct—and less understood—notion from uncertainty. We take a transdisciplinary approach, weaving through and coalescing concept/examples across both physical and societal domains. Our vision is that this manuscript helps setting the right tone and expectations from Earth sciences: that Earth scientists in gaining the trust of policymakers and the broader public should set proper expectations of their model/predictions. That policymakers and the public should appreciate the inexactness of CHANS we aim to understand and manage; thus tolerate some degree of unknown and surprise. For instance, transformative adaptation to climate change requires exploration of future scenarios, that are insightful while inexact. Our position is to encourage our peers and stakeholders to embrace approximate truth and act under uncertainty, in the spirit of Tukey's mantra “Far better an approximate answer to the right question, which is often vague, than an exact answer to the wrong question, which can always be made precise”.