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Hydrodynamic Predictions of Seasonal Variations in Earth Orientation

Authors
/persons/resource/dobslaw

Dobslaw,  H.
1.3 Earth System Modelling, 1.0 Geodesy, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/dill

Dill,  R.
1.3 Earth System Modelling, 1.0 Geodesy, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/mthomas

Thomas,  M.
1.3 Earth System Modelling, 1.0 Geodesy, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

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Citation

Dobslaw, H., Dill, R., Thomas, M. (2018): Hydrodynamic Predictions of Seasonal Variations in Earth Orientation, (Geophysical Research Abstracts ; Vol. 20, EGU2018-2780, 2018), General Assembly European Geosciences Union (Vienna 2018).


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_3131899
Abstract
Short-term forecasts of atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial hydrospheric effective angular momentum functions (EAM) of Earth rotation excitation are combined with least-squares extrapolation and auto-regressive modelling to routinely predict polar motion (PM) and ∆UT1 for up to 90 days into the future. Based on several experiments with more than 500 individual hindcasts from 2016 and 2017, a best-performing parametrization for the method was identified. At forecast horizons of 10 days, the prediction accuracy is 3.02 mas and 5.39 mas for PM and ∆UT1, respectively, corresponding to improvements of 34% and 44% with respect to Bulletin A. At forecast horizons of 60 days, prediction accuracies are 12.52 mas and 107.96 mas for PM and ∆UT1, corresponding to improvements of 34% and 8% over Bulletin A. The 90 days-long EAM forecasts leading to those improved EOP predictions are routinely published once per day at www.gfz-potsdam.de/en/esmdata and are thus ready-for-use for operational EOP prediction efforts.