Stress inversion in a gelatin box: testing eruptive vent location forecasts 
with analog models.

Mantiloni, Lorenzo; Davis, Timothy; Gaete Rojas, Ayleen Barbara; Rivalta, E.

doi:10.1029/2020GL090407

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Stress inversion in a gelatin box: testing eruptive vent location forecasts with analog models.

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/persons/resource/lorenzo

Mantiloni, Lorenzo
2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/davis

Davis, Timothy
2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/agaete

Gaete Rojas, Ayleen Barbara
2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/rivalta

Rivalta, E.
2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

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Zitation

Mantiloni, L., Davis, T., Gaete Rojas, A. B., Rivalta, E. (2021): Stress inversion in a gelatin box: testing eruptive vent location forecasts with analog models. - Geophysical Research Letters, 48, 6, e2020GL090407.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090407

Zitierlink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5005550

Zusammenfassung

Assessing volcanic hazard in regions of distributed volcanism is challenging because of the uncertain location of future vents. A statistical‐mechanical strategy to forecast such locations was recently proposed: here we further develop and test it with analog models. We stress a gelatin block laterally and with surface excavations, and observe air‐filled crack trajectories. We use the observed surface arrivals to sample the distributions of parameters describing the stress state of the gelatin block, combining deterministic crack trajectory simulations with a Monte Carlo approach. While the individual stress parameters remain unconstrained, we effectively retrieve their ratio and successfully forecast the arrival points of subsequent cracks.