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Cyclical geothermal unrest as a precursor to Iceland’s 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption

Authors

Flóvenz,  Ólafur G.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/wang

Wang,  R.
2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Hersir,  Gylfi Páll
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/dahm

Dahm,  T.
2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/hainzl

Hainzl,  S.
2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/magda88

Stefanova Vassileva,  M.
1.4 Remote Sensing, 1.0 Geodesy, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Drouin,  Vincent
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/heimann

Heimann,  Sebastian
2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/isken

Isken,  Marius Paul
2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Gudnason,  Egill Á.
External Organizations;

Ágústsson,  Kristján
External Organizations;

Ágústsdóttir,  Thorbjörg
External Organizations;

Horálek,  Josef
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/motagh

Motagh,  M.
1.4 Remote Sensing, 1.0 Geodesy, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/twalter

Walter,  Thomas
2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/rivalta

Rivalta,  E.
2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/pjousset

Jousset,  P.
2.2 Geophysical Imaging of the Subsurface, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/lotte

Krawczyk,  C.M.
2.2 Geophysical Imaging of the Subsurface, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/online

Milkereit,  C.
2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

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Citation

Flóvenz, Ó. G., Wang, R., Hersir, G. P., Dahm, T., Hainzl, S., Stefanova Vassileva, M., Drouin, V., Heimann, S., Isken, M. P., Gudnason, E. Á., Ágústsson, K., Ágústsdóttir, T., Horálek, J., Motagh, M., Walter, T., Rivalta, E., Jousset, P., Krawczyk, C., Milkereit, C. (2022): Cyclical geothermal unrest as a precursor to Iceland’s 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption. - Nature Geoscience, 15, 397-404.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00930-5


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5011231
Abstract
Understanding and constraining the source of geodetic deformation in volcanic areas is an important component of hazard assessment. Here, we analyse deformation and seismicity for one year before the March 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption in Iceland. We generate a high-resolution catalogue of 39,500 earthquakes using optical cable recordings and develop a poroelastic model to describe three pre-eruptional uplift and subsidence cycles at the Svartsengi geothermal field, 8 km west of the eruption site. We find the observed deformation is best explained by cyclic intrusions into a permeable aquifer by a fluid injected at 4 km depth below the geothermal field, with a total volume of 0.11 ± 0.05 km3 and a density of 850 ± 350 kg m–3. We therefore suggest that ingression of magmatic CO2 can explain the geodetic, gravity and seismic data, although some contribution of magma cannot be excluded.