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Journal Article

A Probabilistic View on Rupture Predictability: All Earthquakes Evolve Similarly

Authors
/persons/resource/munchmej

Münchmeyer,  J.
2.4 Seismology, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;
Publikationen aller GIPP-unterstützten Projekte, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Leser,  Ulf
External Organizations;
Publikationen aller GIPP-unterstützten Projekte, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/tilmann

Tilmann,  Frederik
2.4 Seismology, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;
Publikationen aller GIPP-unterstützten Projekte, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

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5012181.pdf
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Citation

Münchmeyer, J., Leser, U., Tilmann, F. (2022): A Probabilistic View on Rupture Predictability: All Earthquakes Evolve Similarly. - Geophysical Research Letters, 49, 13, e2022GL098344.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098344


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5012181
Abstract
Ruptures of the largest earthquakes can last between a few seconds and several minutes. An early assessment of the final earthquake size is essential for early warning systems. However, it is still unclear when in the rupture history this final size can be predicted. Here we introduce a probabilistic view of rupture evolution - how likely is the event to become large - allowing for a clear and well-founded answer with implications for earthquake physics and early warning. We apply our approach to real time magnitude estimation based on either moment rate functions or broadband teleseismic P arrivals. In both cases, we find strong and principled evidence against early rupture predictability because differentiation between differently sized ruptures only occurs once half of the rupture has been observed. Even then, it is impossible to foresee future asperities. Our results hint toward a universal initiation behavior for small and large ruptures.