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Abstract

Iran has experienced a drastic increase in water scarcity in the last decades. The main driver has been the substantial unsustainable water consumption of the agricultural sector. This study quantifies the spatiotemporal dynamics of Iran’s hydrometeorological water availability, land cover, and vegetation growth and evaluates their interrelations with a special focus on agricultural vegetation developments. It analyzes globally available reanalysis climate data and satellite time series data and products, allowing a country-wide investigation of recent 20+ years at detailed spatial and temporal scales. The results reveal a wide-spread agricultural expansion (27,000 km2) and a significant cultivation intensification (48,000 km2). At the same time, we observe a substantial decline in total water storage that is not represented by a decrease of meteorological water input, confirming an unsustainable use of groundwater mainly for agricultural irrigation. As consequence of water scarcity, we identify agricultural areas with a loss or reduction of vegetation growth (10,000 km2), especially in irrigated agricultural areas under (hyper-)arid conditions. In Iran’s natural biomes, the results show declining trends in vegetation growth and land cover degradation from sparse vegetation to barren land in 40,000 km2, mainly along the western plains and foothills of the Zagros Mountains, and at the same time wide-spread greening trends, particularly in regions of higher altitudes. Overall, the findings provide detailed insights in vegetation-related causes and consequences of Iran’s anthropogenic drought and can support sustainable management plans for Iran or other semi-arid regions worldwide, often facing similar conditions.