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Quantifying uncertainties in numerical simulations and gas hazard assessment of volcanic gas dispersion

Authors

Massaro,  Silvia
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Costa,  Antonio
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Stocchi,  Manuel
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Dioguardi,  Fabio
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Tamburello,  Giancarlo
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Sandri,  Laura
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Selva,  Jacopo
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Folch,  Arnau
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Macedonio,  Giovanni
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Viveiros,  Fatima
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Vougioukalakis,  Georges
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Massaro, S., Costa, A., Stocchi, M., Dioguardi, F., Tamburello, G., Sandri, L., Selva, J., Folch, A., Macedonio, G., Viveiros, F., Vougioukalakis, G. (2023): Quantifying uncertainties in numerical simulations and gas hazard assessment of volcanic gas dispersion, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-0870


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5016609
Abstract
The emission of volcanic gases can occur during both eruptive and quiescent stages of volcanic activity, affecting air quality when the concentrations exceed species-specific thresholds. Quantitative studies of model validation are essential before applying a simulator for probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment. Here, we provide three examples of model validation aimed at testing the accuracy in providing realistic values of CO2 concentration, estimating the source gas fluxes using the concentration measurements through resolution of the inverse problem, and identifying potential hazardous gas dispersal scenarios. We selected three case study affected by a persistent diffusive and fumarolic degassing: i) La Solfatara crater, Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy, ii) Caldeiras da Ribeira Grande, São Miguel Island, Azores and iii) Stefanos crater, Nisyros Island, Greece. We used published and original CO2 flux data as input for numerical simulations run through VIGIL, an open-source workflow for parallel simulations and probabilistic output using two Eulerian models, which account for the passive and gravity-driven gas transport, respectively. Our results provided probabilistic CO2 concentration maps at 0.5-1.5 m from the ground in order to investigate the potential effects on human and animal health, and statistical tests aimed to infer the best scaling factor for gas flux in reaching hazardous gas concentrations. This kind of methodology has revelad the potential usefulness of the modeling in reproducing the order of magnitude of the observed degassing, therefore, such a testing should be the first logical step to be taken before applying a simulator to assess (gas) hazard in any other volcanic contexts.