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North Atlantic subpolar gyre provides downstream ocean predictability

Urheber*innen

Fan,  Hongdou
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Borchert,  Leonard
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Brune,  Sebastian
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Koul,  Vimal
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Baehr,  Johanna
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Zitation

Fan, H., Borchert, L., Brune, S., Koul, V., Baehr, J. (2023): North Atlantic subpolar gyre provides downstream ocean predictability, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-1951


Zitierlink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5017588
Zusammenfassung
The poleward propagation of thermohaline anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean provides oceanic and continental climate predictability on decadal time scale. However, whether the signals from Subpolar Gyre of the North Atlantic (SPG) manifest in its downstream decadal prediction remains unclear. In this study, we assess the decadal prediction of temperature and salinity in the Nordic Seas, and investigate the role of poleward progression of signals from the subpolar gyre (SPG) in the MPI-ESM-LR1.2 decadal prediction system. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) prediction skill of salinity in the Nordic Seas is considerably higher than ACC of temperature. Subsurface temperature is skillfully predicted 2 years in advance, while subsurface salinity is skillfully predicted up to 8 years in advance. The high ACC of salinity propagates from eastern SPG into the Nordic Seas, benefiting from the slow northward ocean propagation which is modulated by the SPG. Our results suggest that the manifestation and persistence of SPG signals determine the prediction time scales of downstream ocean climate.The reproduced SPG signals in salinity in the MPI-ESM-LR1.2 decadal prediction system provides potential to harness the high performance of salinity prediction to improve the decadal prediction of multiple variables including fish stocks in the Nordic Seas and in the subarctic in general.