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Probabilistic estimates of mean earthquake recurrence interval and its uncertainty on key upper-plate faults in New Zealand

Authors

Coffey,  Genevieve
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Rollins,  Chris
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Van Dissen,  Russ
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Thingbaijam,  Kiran Kumar
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Rhoades,  David
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Gerstenberger,  Matthew
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Litchfield,  Nicola
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Coffey, G., Rollins, C., Van Dissen, R., Thingbaijam, K. K., Rhoades, D., Gerstenberger, M., Litchfield, N. (2023): Probabilistic estimates of mean earthquake recurrence interval and its uncertainty on key upper-plate faults in New Zealand, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-2150


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5018679
Abstract
A wealth of data about earthquake behaviour in New Zealand has been obtained through numerous paleoseismic, geologic and geodetic studies in the past fifty years. These data have been compiled in the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), respectively within the Paleoseismic Site Database, Community Fault Model (CFM), and Geodetic Deformation Model. Here, we use these data to probabilistically estimate the mean recurrence interval (MRI) of earthquakes on key upper-plate faults at 81 sites throughout New Zealand. First, we take the timings of past earthquakes from the Paleoseismic Site Database and fit the inter-event periods at each site to Brownian Passage Time, lognormal, and Poissonian recurrence models. We iteratively explore wide ranges of possible MRI and dispersion in these models, and thereby derive Bayesian PDFs of both parameters at each site, following the approach of Biasi et al (2015). Then, we take single-event displacement data from the Paleoseismic Site Database, along with geologic and geodetic slip rates from the New Zealand CFM and Geodetic Deformation Model, and estimate MRI an alternate way by dividing each site’s PDF of mean single-event displacement by its PDF of mean slip rate. Finally, at every site where we have both timings data and single-event displacement and slip rate estimates, we multiply the PDFs of MRI from these two methods together to derive a more tightly constrained estimate of MRI and its uncertainty. These estimate formed a key input into the on-fault portion of the NSHM.