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Conference Paper

Comparative study between the Popocatepetl volcano’s ash plume actual dispersion and the Fall3D model forecasts

Authors

Espinosa Galaz,  Maripaz Y.
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Delgado-Granados,  Hugo
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Téllez Ugalde,  Eric B.
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

García Reynoso,  José A.
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Zavala Hidalgo,  Jorge
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Espinosa Galaz, M. Y., Delgado-Granados, H., Téllez Ugalde, E. B., García Reynoso, J. A., Zavala Hidalgo, J. (2023): Comparative study between the Popocatepetl volcano’s ash plume actual dispersion and the Fall3D model forecasts, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-3521


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5020363
Abstract
A numerical forecast system for ash dispersion, based in a WRF configuration and Fall3D, was implemented to help prevention decisions. The system uses the daily weather forecast from National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) and the Fall3D model. Fall3D is a Eulerian model for the transport and deposition of volcanic tephra. A statistical comparison between the dispersion predicted with the model and the actual dispersion of the ash plume of Popocatepetl volcano has been made. We compared two-year (January 2021- to November 2022) daily Fall3D runs performed by UNAM ash forecast system, with the observations of the actual ash plume direction of Popocatepetl volcano in the same two-year period. These observations were made with the use of several public webcams that continuously monitor the volcano and are available on YouTube. Because the volcano is cloudy for half of the year, several webcams and even radar data were needed to confirm some measurements specially during rainy season. The statistical results show that although some forecasts had large differences, most of the observations agree with the forecasts of the model.