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Abstract

In the Main Development Region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes, the volume of water warmer than 26.5 ⁰C quantifies the potential source of energy for major storms. Taking a Lagrangian perspective, this warm water is backtracked on seasonal timescales in an eddy-resolving ocean model hindcast spanning 1988-2010. Being confined near the surface and assuming a mixed layer depth of 50 m, net heat fluxes into or out of water parcels advected towards the MDR are inferred from along-trajectory temperature tendencies. To first order, these heat fluxes match surface net heat fluxes during the months over which water advects into the region. Contributions to this warm water in the preceding 6 months include water resident in the MDR (20-40%), arriving via the North Brazil Current (NBC, 5-15%), or via Ekman drift across 10 ⁰S. In relative terms, decreased contributions from the NBC and Ekman drift and more in situ warming within the MDR lead to warmer, more active hurricane seasons.