Paleoclimate Dynamics: Understanding the big picture, from the deep past to 
long-term future, bridging disciplines, and thinking outside the box

Lohmann, Gerrit; Knorr, Gregor; Ionita, Monica; Werner, Martin; Rimbu, Norel; Stepanek, Christian; Butzin, Martin; Ackermann, Lars; Contzen, Justus; Song, Pengyang; Shi, Xiaoxu; Yang, Hu; Niu, Lu; Masoum, Ahmadreza; Gou, Ruijian

doi:10.57757/IUGG23-3125

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Paleoclimate Dynamics: Understanding the big picture, from the deep past to long-term future, bridging disciplines, and thinking outside the box

Authors

Lohmann, Gerrit
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Knorr, Gregor
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Ionita, Monica
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Werner, Martin
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Rimbu, Norel
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Stepanek, Christian
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Butzin, Martin
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Ackermann, Lars
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Contzen, Justus
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Song, Pengyang
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Shi, Xiaoxu
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Yang, Hu
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Niu, Lu
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Masoum, Ahmadreza
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Gou, Ruijian
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Lohmann, G., Knorr, G., Ionita, M., Werner, M., Rimbu, N., Stepanek, C., Butzin, M., Ackermann, L., Contzen, J., Song, P., Shi, X., Yang, H., Niu, L., Masoum, A., Gou, R. (2023): Paleoclimate Dynamics: Understanding the big picture, from the deep past to long-term future, bridging disciplines, and thinking outside the box, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-3125

Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5020446

Abstract

Looking at the past sharpens our understanding of possible future climate changes. We focus on Earth system modeling, paleoclimate data analysis, and theoretical aspects. Predicting the future spread of possible climates, the risk of climate extremes and the risk of rapid transitions is of high relevance. The past provides evidence of abrupt climate change and the frequency of extremes. Earth system models applied both to past and future scenarios enhance our ability to detect regime shifts in climates and extremes. We consider the response of the system to long-term forcing and then focus on shorter time scales down to weather. Particular aspects are: Model resolution matters for climate change and extremes; recorder systems such as O, H, C-isotopes enable a suitable interpretation of the past; data assimilation can yield a dynamically consistent picture. New high-resolution models can quantify the feedbacks in the atmosphere-ocean-ice system and inform us about the full range of climate variability and extremes.With our holistic approach, we seek to overcome known biases of deep-time polar amplification, the stochastic nature of centennial-to-millennial climate variability, as well as extremes. Here, we put emphasis on the concept of a hierarchy of models as this provides a linkage between theoretical understanding and the complexity of the system. Lohmann, Butzin, Eissner, Shi, Stepanek, 2020: Abrupt climate and weather changes across timescales. Paleoc. Paleoclim., doi:10.1029/2019PA003782 Lohmann, 2020: Temperatures from energy balance models: the effective heat capacity matters. ESD, doi:10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020 Contzen, Dickhaus, Lohmann, 2023: Long-term temporal evolution of temperature extreme in a warming Earth. PLOS, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0280503