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Conference Paper

The response in the Tropics to decadal and centennial solar variability

Authors

Spiegl,  Tobias
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Schmidt,  Franziska
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Langematz,  Ulrike
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Huo,  Wenjuan
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Wahl,  Sebastian
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Matthes,  Katja
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Kröger,  Jürgen
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Pohlmann,  Holger
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Spiegl, T., Schmidt, F., Langematz, U., Huo, W., Wahl, S., Matthes, K., Kröger, J., Pohlmann, H. (2023): The response in the Tropics to decadal and centennial solar variability, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-3113


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5020559
Abstract
It is thought that the 11-year solar cycle modulates surface decadal climate. With respect to the tropical Pacific, the concept of signal transmission includes that the relatively small changes in the total solar irradiance throughout the 11-year solar cycle become amplified by an interaction with clouds and ITCZ dynamics. Furthermore, it has been claimed that the initial signals can grow over time and maximize with a time lag of a couple of years. The ENSO-like signals in the Eastern Pacific might interfere with the internal variability of ENSO by synchronizing its decadal variability component. As part of the German SOLCHECK project, historical ensemble simulations have been conducted with two chemistry-climate models and one Earth system model (EMAC, FOCI and MPI-ESM). 24 ensemble members, including all natural and anthropogenic climate drivers, have been integrated over the time-period 1850 to 2019. Additionally, a unique set of time slice experiments have been realized to analyze the atmospheric response to a severe Grand Solar Minimum under different atmospheric steady-state background conditions (1850, 2020 and 2100). Using different strategies to analyze the model data we found little evidence for surface solar signals on the decadal time scale in our model simulations. This applies to the detected solar signals and the alleged processes. Furthermore, we found a distinct spread in the results of the different models, which complicates a holistic interpretation of the dataset. However, the surface solar signals become clearer and more robust in our steady-state simulations, which incorporate a severe centennial scale solar downturn.