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Conference Paper

Delayed impacts of ENSO on the frequency of summer extreme hot days in the Asian monsoon region

Authors

Yuan,  Chaoxia
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Ye,  Jiaxin
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Lu,  Xinyu
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Yang,  Mengzhou
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Luo,  Jingjia
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Yamagata,  Toshio
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Yuan, C., Ye, J., Lu, X., Yang, M., Luo, J., Yamagata, T. (2023): Delayed impacts of ENSO on the frequency of summer extreme hot days in the Asian monsoon region, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-3040


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5020609
Abstract
Significant anomalies in frequency of summer extreme hot day (SEHD) are broadly observed in the Asian monsoon region (AMR) in the post-ENSO summers. The delayed ENSO impacts are mainly conveyed by provoking the Indo-western Pacific Ocean capacitor effect that maintains the anomalous anticyclone in the western North Pacific. The related diabatic heating anomaly can trigger the westward propagating Rossby wave to the Indian subcontinent, which increases the geopotencial heights, reduces the cloud cover, and thus increases the seasonal surface temperature and SEHD frequency in the southern AMR. Besides, the reduced atmospheric moisture in the western North Pacific hinders the northward propagation of intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and modulates the occurrence frequency of individual ISO phases, contributing to the significantly increased/decreased SEHDs in eastern China/Hokkaido of Japan in the post-El Niño summers.The 25-model-ensemble mean of CMIP6 in both historical and SSP5-8.5 runs can simulate well the delayed ENSO impacts on the SEHDs in the southern AMR. Hence, the robust ENSO-SEHD relationship can provide the dominant source of SEHD predictability. We found that the anomaly correlation coefficients between the observed and predicted region-mean SEHD anomalies in the southern AMR south of 30˚N during 1982-2014 in the POAMA-2 prediction system are 0.72, 0.72, 0.70, 0.60, 0.61 and 0.61 at 6-1 month lead, respectively, all statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence levels. In the SINTEX-F prediction system, the skillful prediction of the region-mean SEHD frequency can be up to 14 month in advance.