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Abstract

Land cover change and climate extremes are intricately connected. Land cover change refers to the conversion of natural ecosystems such as forests, wetlands, and grasslands into agricultural or urban landscapes. This transformation can have significant impacts on climate extremes such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, and storms. Deforestation is one of the major reasons for such extremes. Deforestation has biophysical and biochemical consequences. Our research assesses the effects of hypothetical land cover scenarios in the Ganga basin of India, using a coupled weather-biosphere model online. We examine carbon storage in relation to deforestation (DEF) and afforestation (AFF) introduced in the region. To achieve this, we used the WRF-VPRM model to simulate at a horizontal resolution of 20 km, with an optimized downscaling configuration. Our results indicated that surface temperatures increased twofold in the DEF case, while the AFF scenario had a cooling effect. Carbon sequestration for AFF was found to be 0.3 g C m-2 day-1 greater than the control run (CTL). The CTL simulations displayed carbon sequestration capability of around 59.3 Mt C yr-1, with a sequestration capability of -0.15 g C m-2 day-1. Compared to the DEF scenario, the AFF scenario showed a relative increase in net sequestration. Additionally, the model simulations indicated that carbon sequestration could be increased by all vegetation types, not just evergreen forests. Our study emphasizes the impact of land management practices on atmospheric CO2 variation.