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Conference Paper

Evaluating the formation mechanisms of projected warming patterns in the Indian Ocean

Authors

Sharma,  Sahil
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Ha,  Kyung-Ja
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Yamaguchi,  Ryohei
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Rodgers,  Keith
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Timmermann,  Axel
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Chung,  Eui-Seok
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Sharma, S., Ha, K.-J., Yamaguchi, R., Rodgers, K., Timmermann, A., Chung, E.-S. (2023): Evaluating the formation mechanisms of projected warming patterns in the Indian Ocean, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-3762


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5020782
Abstract
Most future projections conducted with coupled general circulation models simulate a non-uniform Indian Ocean warming, with warming hotspots occurring in the Arabian Sea (AS) and the southeastern Indian Ocean (SEIO). Although the corresponding spatial temperature gradients are associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies and rainfall trends with far-reaching societal implications, little is known about the underlying physical drivers. Here, we analyze a suite of large ensemble simulations conducted with the Community Earth System Model 2 to elucidate the causes of non-uniform Indian Ocean warming. Strong negative climatological air-sea interactions in the Eastern Indian Ocean are responsible for a future weakening of the zonal equatorial sea surface temperature gradient, resulting in a slowdown of the Indian Ocean Walker circulation and the generation of southeasterly wind anomalies over the AS. These contribute to anomalous northward ocean heat transport, reduced evaporative cooling, a weakening in upper ocean vertical mixing and an enhanced AS future warming. In contrast, the projected warming in the SEIO is related to a reduction of low-cloud cover and an associated increase in shortwave radiation. Therefore, the regional character of air-sea interactions plays a key role in promoting future large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation anomalies with implications for society and ecosystems far outside the Indian Ocean realm.