Bayesian mean sea level projections at the coast

Perrette, Mahé; Mengel, Matthias

doi:10.57757/IUGG23-3649

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Bayesian mean sea level projections at the coast

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Perrette, Mahé
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Mengel, Matthias
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Perrette, M., Mengel, M. (2023): Bayesian mean sea level projections at the coast, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-3649

Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5020893

Abstract

Much progress has been made on determining the causes of regional mean sea level trends, thanks to observation and modeling of individual contributions and tighter constraints on vertical land motion through a network of GPS stations and the combined use of satellite altimetry and tide gauges (e.g. Hawkins et al, 2019; Frederikse et al 2021). Here we pull that knowledge together in a Bayesian framework to calibrate climate-driven empirical models and make mean sea level projections at global coastlines. We include a stochastic representation of ocean interannual variability that accounts for spatial correlations to consistently tie together the various observations with the climate-driven trend.