Item

Abstract

The acceleration of West Antarctic melting is a critical factor in determining the extent of future global sea level rise. Loss of the West Antarctic ice sheet due to global warming will have various regimechanges in line with changes in the Earth system. In addition to the local atmospheric circulation, tropical variability such as El Niño may also affect the melting of WAIS by teleconnection.In particular, the strong El Niño has delayed the ice mass loss of West Antarctica under global warming by inducing weakening of the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) and consequent extreme snowfall. In order to continue to work of the self-defense mechanism of the atmosphere, which slows down global warming, the global warming must not exceed a critical point.However, analysis of future climate scenarios by the CMIP6 predicts that these mechanisms will disappear in future warmer climates, especially with the failutre of the Paris Agreement's aim.This is because the stronger polar jet related with positive SAM trend would shift the ASL anomaly toward the east and the equator in the warmer climate, which would prevent water vapor transport into the interior of West Antarctica.