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Abstract

Climate change is globally impacting humans in various ways; water resources are one of the most vulnerable since they depend on meteorological and hydrological variations and are operated for different purposes (irrigation, hydropower, etc.). In this study, future snowmelt runoff projections and operation of the water system are carried out based on climate change scenarios for one of the main tributaries of Seyhan Basin (4,346 km2) and upstream of Coruh Basin (7,222 km2) in Türkiye. A well-known conceptual hydrologic model (HBV) is used to estimate future snowmelt runoff projections (2020-2099) of reservoir inflows in mountainous snowfed basins. Calibration (1971-2000) and validation (2001-2011) studies are conducted for each basin using ground observations and satellite snow cover products. The results of calibration and validation studies are 0.70-0.77 according to NSE. The EU-CORDEX database is used to get an ensemble of five different Global Circulation Models (GCMs) with Regional Circulation Models (RCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) scenarios. Climate data sets are adjusted for local bias corrections. According to the results, precipitation, snow variables, and the projected mean annual inflows are expected to decrease drastically in the basins. An ensemble of GCMs is used to estimate hydropower generation, simulating reservoir operation using the monthly scenario-based Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. According to WEAP model, hydropower production in the Seyhan Basin will decrease by 12.4–23.0% in 2076–2099. In light of potential climate change scenarios, these insights can be used to manage reservoirs and produce hydropower.