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Abstract

The largest earthquakes in Iceland take place in two transform zones, more populated one in Southwest Iceland consists of the Reykjanes Peninsula Oblique Rift zone (RPOR), in the proximity of the capital region of Reykjavik where 2/3 of the country’s population resides, and the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) with larger seismic potential that coincides with Iceland's largest agricultural region. Recently, three strong earthquakes in the zone caused damage and were well-recorded on the regional networks: 17-June-2000 (Mw6.4), 21-June-2000 (Mw6.5) and 29-May-2008 (Mw6.3). Each of them was followed by intense aftershock sequences on the ruptured fault and across the SISZ-RPOR.A transparent operational aftershock forecasting (OAF) system aims to improve community awareness and preparedness to respond effectively and efficiently to local authorities in the immediate aftermath of a strong earthquake, thus speeding up the recovery process during a severe seismic sequence. At present, such a platform is not in general use in Iceland. To explore the feasibility of such a system, retrospective and prospective experiments are necessary. This study independently evaluates a Bayesian spatiotemporal epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, calibrated to three strong sequences in southwest Iceland, using the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) framework. The initial results of the model evaluation are presented, with the final goal of automatically and objectively evaluating the Bayesian ETAS model against prospective data running at the Icelandic Meteorological Office for operational use. Overall, this study aims at implementing an OAF system in Iceland to enhance aftershock predictability and improve earthquake resiliency.