English
 
Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT
Add to Basket
  Local TagsRelease HistoryDetailsSummary

Released
Conference Paper

Recalibrating DWD’s operational climate predictions: towards a user-oriented seamless climate service

Authors

Pasternack,  Alexander
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Mannig,  Birgit
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Paxian,  Andreas
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Hoff,  Amelie
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Klaus,  Pankatz
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Lorenz,  Philip
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Früh,  Barbara
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

External Ressource
No external resources are shared
Fulltext (public)
There are no public fulltexts stored in GFZpublic
Supplementary Material (public)
There is no public supplementary material available
Citation

Pasternack, A., Mannig, B., Paxian, A., Hoff, A., Klaus, P., Lorenz, P., Früh, B. (2023): Recalibrating DWD’s operational climate predictions: towards a user-oriented seamless climate service, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-4211


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5021650
Abstract
The German Meteorological Service's (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) climate predictions website (Paxian et al. 2023) (www.dwd.de/climatepredictions) offers a centralized platform for accessing post-processed climate predictions, including subseasonal forecasts from ECMWF's IFS and seasonal and decadal predictions from the German climate prediction system. The website design was developed in collaboration with various sectors to ensure uniformity across all time frames, and users can view maps, tables, and time series of ensemble mean and probabilistic predictions in combination with their skill. The available data covers weekly, 3-month, 1-year, and 5-year temperature means and precipitation sums for the world, Europe, Germany, and particular German regions. To achieve high spatial resolution, the DWD used the statistical downscaling method EPISODES (Kreienkamp et al. 2019).However, all predictions on these time scales can suffer from inherent systematic errors, which can impact their usefulness. To address these issues, the recalibration method DeFoReSt (Pasternack et al. 2021) was applied to decadal predictions, using a combination of 3rd order polynomials in lead and start time, along with a boosting model selection approach. This approach addresses lead-time dependent systematic errors, such as drift, as well as inaccuracies in representing long-term changes and variability.This study highlights the improved accuracy of the recalibration approach on decadal predictions due to an increased polynomial order compared to the original approach, and its different impact on global and regional scales. It also explores the feasibility of transferring this approach to predictions with shorter time horizons.