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Abstract

Tehran stands as one of the most earthquake-prone cities globally. This vast urban center, with a population exceeding 10 million, is intersected by several active faults in its vicinity, presenting significant seismic hazards. The occurrence of two Mw ~5 earthquakes in December 2017 near Malard and May 2020 near Damavand, further underscores the urgent need for comprehensive studies in the capital of Iran. Here, we primarily focus on the 2017 and 2020 seismic events and their causative faults. Additionally, we shed light on the limitations of Tehran's seismic monitoring and active faults map by addressing examples of unidentified seismic unrest and faults. By tackling the grand challenges of seismic studies and evaluating people's and cities' preparedness for a major earthquake, we draw insights from recent earthquakes around Tehran. Results show that the Malard and Damavand earthquakes occurred on the previously unknown and Mosha faults, respectively. Sparse seismic stations limit route detection thresholds and location accuracies of seismicity near Tehran. In addition, we show that the dispersion of population and distressed fabrics in Tehran is clustered, and the vulnerability to earthquakes is linked to physical and social factors. This study bears immense importance in enhancing seismological studies and risk reduction strategies for the Tehran province. Tehran stands as one of the most earthquake-prone cities globally. This vast urban center, with a population exceeding 10 million, is intersected by several active faults in its vicinity, presenting significant seismic hazards. The occurrence of two Mw ~5 earthquakes in December 2017 near Malard and May 2020 near Damavand, which resulted in the loss of life and significant consequences, further underscores the urgent need for comprehensive studies in the capital of Iran. Here, we primarily focus on the 2017 and 2020 seismic events and their causative faults. Additionally, we shed light on the limitations of Tehran's seismic monitoring and active faults map by addressing examples of unidentified seismic unrest and faults. By tackling the grand challenges of seismic studies and evaluating people's and cities' preparedness for a major earthquake, we draw insights from recent earthquakes and the 2023 Türkiye-Syria disaster. Results show that the Malard and Damavand earthquakes occurred on the hitherto unknown and Mosha faults, respectively. Sparse seismic stations limit route detection thresholds and location accuracies of seismicity near Tehran. In addition, we show that the dispersion of population and distressed fabrics in Tehran is clustered, and the vulnerability to earthquakes is linked to physical and social factors. This study bears immense importance in enhancing seismological studies and risk reduction strategies for the Tehran metropolis.