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Abstract

Population growth, changing consumption preferences, technological advances, globalised trade and environmental influences have all shaped global agriculture. An increasing demand for agricultural commodities has led to greater production through land area expansion and/or intensification (represented here as increasing yields). Yet, the interlinkages between global agricultural expansion and intensification, remain unclear. Here we (1) analyse the spatiotemporal patterns of global cropland changes and crop yield changes at a spatial resolution of 1 km during six decades (1960–2020) and (2) explore the relationship between yield increases and cropland expansion across agroecological country zones by applying a temporal cross-correlation and a Granger causality test. We find that high-income countries have followed a trajectory of yield increase and land contraction on croplands, in accordance with the concept of land sparing and mediated by policy. Conversely, low-income countries have increased yields less but substantially expanded cropland area over time. However, emerging countries in tropical regions (e.g. Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand, Colombia, and Malaysia), had both the highest crop yield increases and cropland expansion rates. By analysing the relationship of annual crop yield and cropland area changes, we see potential rebound effects of yield increases in tropical lowlands of low- to middle-income countries. Our results suggest that high-profit crops such as soybean, oil palm and sugar cane have triggered further agricultural expansion into natural ecosystems. Increasing tree crops is the underlying cause of more than half of the global deforestation for cropland expansion. Overall, the relationship between yield increases and expansion on cropland differs by region and is likely affected to varying degrees by political intervention, global trade, technology transfer and climate change.