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  How biased are our models? – a case study of the alpine region

Degen, D., Spooner, C., Scheck-Wenderoth, M., Cacace, M. (2021): How biased are our models? – a case study of the alpine region. - Geoscientific Model Development, 14, 11, 7133-7153.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7133-2021

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Item Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5008815 Version Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5008815_1
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Degen, Denise1, Author              
Spooner, C.2, Author              
Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena2, Author              
Cacace, Mauro2, Author              
Affiliations:
10 Pre-GFZ, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum, ou_146023              
24.5 Basin Modelling, 4.0 Geosystems, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum, ou_146042              

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 Abstract: Geophysical process simulations play a crucial role in the understanding of the subsurface. This understanding is required to provide, for instance, clean energy sources such as geothermal energy. However, the calibration and validation of the physical models heavily rely on state measurements such as temperature. In this work, we demonstrate that focusing analyses purely on measurements introduces a high bias. This is illustrated through global sensitivity studies. The extensive exploration of the parameter space becomes feasible through the construction of suitable surrogate models via the reduced basis method, where the bias is found to result from very unequal data distribution. We propose schemes to compensate for parts of this bias. However, the bias cannot be entirely compensated. Therefore, we demonstrate the consequences of this bias with the example of a model calibration.

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 Dates: 2021-11-242021
 Publication Status: Finally published
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 Identifiers: DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-7133-2021
GFZPOF: p4 T8 Georesources
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Title: Geoscientific Model Development
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 14 (11) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 7133 - 7153 Identifier: ISSN: 1991-959X
ISSN: 1991-9603
CoNE: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals185
Publisher: Copernicus