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Journal Article

How biased are our models? – a case study of the alpine region

Authors
/persons/resource/degen

Degen,  Denise
0 Pre-GFZ, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/spooner

Spooner,  C.
4.5 Basin Modelling, 4.0 Geosystems, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/leni

Scheck-Wenderoth,  Magdalena
4.5 Basin Modelling, 4.0 Geosystems, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/cacace

Cacace,  Mauro
4.5 Basin Modelling, 4.0 Geosystems, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

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5008815.pdf
(Publisher version), 11MB

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Citation

Degen, D., Spooner, C., Scheck-Wenderoth, M., Cacace, M. (2021): How biased are our models? – a case study of the alpine region. - Geoscientific Model Development, 14, 11, 7133-7153.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7133-2021


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5008815
Abstract
Geophysical process simulations play a crucial role in the understanding of the subsurface. This understanding is required to provide, for instance, clean energy sources such as geothermal energy. However, the calibration and validation of the physical models heavily rely on state measurements such as temperature. In this work, we demonstrate that focusing analyses purely on measurements introduces a high bias. This is illustrated through global sensitivity studies. The extensive exploration of the parameter space becomes feasible through the construction of suitable surrogate models via the reduced basis method, where the bias is found to result from very unequal data distribution. We propose schemes to compensate for parts of this bias. However, the bias cannot be entirely compensated. Therefore, we demonstrate the consequences of this bias with the example of a model calibration.