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  How biased are our models? – a case study of the alpine region

Degen, D., Spooner, C., Scheck-Wenderoth, M., Cacace, M. (2021): How biased are our models? – a case study of the alpine region. - Geoscientific Model Development, 14, 11, 7133-7153.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7133-2021

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Degen, Denise1, Autor              
Spooner, C.2, Autor              
Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena2, Autor              
Cacace, Mauro2, Autor              
Affiliations:
10 Pre-GFZ, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum, ou_146023              
24.5 Basin Modelling, 4.0 Geosystems, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum, ou_146042              

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 Zusammenfassung: Geophysical process simulations play a crucial role in the understanding of the subsurface. This understanding is required to provide, for instance, clean energy sources such as geothermal energy. However, the calibration and validation of the physical models heavily rely on state measurements such as temperature. In this work, we demonstrate that focusing analyses purely on measurements introduces a high bias. This is illustrated through global sensitivity studies. The extensive exploration of the parameter space becomes feasible through the construction of suitable surrogate models via the reduced basis method, where the bias is found to result from very unequal data distribution. We propose schemes to compensate for parts of this bias. However, the bias cannot be entirely compensated. Therefore, we demonstrate the consequences of this bias with the example of a model calibration.

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 Datum: 2021-11-242021
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
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 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-7133-2021
GFZPOF: p4 T8 Georesources
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
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Titel: Geoscientific Model Development
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, oa
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Seiten: - Band / Heft: 14 (11) Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 7133 - 7153 Identifikator: ISSN: 1991-959X
ISSN: 1991-9603
CoNE: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals185
Publisher: Copernicus