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  Comparative study between the Popocatepetl volcano’s ash plume actual dispersion and the Fall3D model forecasts

Espinosa Galaz, M. Y., Delgado-Granados, H., Téllez Ugalde, E. B., García Reynoso, J. A., Zavala Hidalgo, J. (2023): Comparative study between the Popocatepetl volcano’s ash plume actual dispersion and the Fall3D model forecasts, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-3521

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Item Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5020363 Version Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5020363_1
Genre: Conference Paper

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 Creators:
Espinosa Galaz, Maripaz Y.1, Author
Delgado-Granados, Hugo1, Author
Téllez Ugalde, Eric B.1, Author
García Reynoso, José A.1, Author
Zavala Hidalgo, Jorge1, Author
Affiliations:
1IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations, ou_5011304              

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 Abstract: A numerical forecast system for ash dispersion, based in a WRF configuration and Fall3D, was implemented to help prevention decisions. The system uses the daily weather forecast from National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) and the Fall3D model. Fall3D is a Eulerian model for the transport and deposition of volcanic tephra. A statistical comparison between the dispersion predicted with the model and the actual dispersion of the ash plume of Popocatepetl volcano has been made. We compared two-year (January 2021- to November 2022) daily Fall3D runs performed by UNAM ash forecast system, with the observations of the actual ash plume direction of Popocatepetl volcano in the same two-year period. These observations were made with the use of several public webcams that continuously monitor the volcano and are available on YouTube. Because the volcano is cloudy for half of the year, several webcams and even radar data were needed to confirm some measurements specially during rainy season. The statistical results show that although some forecasts had large differences, most of the observations agree with the forecasts of the model.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-07-112023-07-11
 Publication Status: Finally published
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 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.57757/IUGG23-3521
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Title: XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
Place of Event: Berlin
Start-/End Date: 2023-07-11 - 2023-07-20

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Title: XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
Source Genre: Proceedings
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Publ. Info: Potsdam : GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
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