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Comment on “Potential short‐term earthquake forecasting by farm animal monitoring” by Wikelski, Mueller, Scocco, Catorci, Desinov, Belyaev, Keim, Pohlmeier, Fechteler, and Mai

Authors

Zöller,  Gert
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/hainzl

Hainzl,  S.
2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/tilmann

Tilmann,  Frederik
2.4 Seismology, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/radon

Woith,  H.
2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/dahm

Dahm,  T.
2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

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5003768.pdf
(Publisher version), 613KB

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Citation

Zöller, G., Hainzl, S., Tilmann, F., Woith, H., Dahm, T. (2021): Comment on “Potential short‐term earthquake forecasting by farm animal monitoring” by Wikelski, Mueller, Scocco, Catorci, Desinov, Belyaev, Keim, Pohlmeier, Fechteler, and Mai. - Ethology, 127, 3, 302-306.
https://doi.org/10.1111/eth.13105


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5003768
Abstract
Based on an analysis of continuous monitoring of farm animal behavior in the region of the 2016 M6.6 Norcia earthquake in Italy, Wikelski et al., 2020; (Seismol Res Lett, 89, 2020, 1238) conclude that animal activity can be anticipated with subsequent seismic activity and that this finding might help to design a “short‐term earthquake forecasting method.” We show that this result is based on an incomplete analysis and misleading interpretations. Applying state‐of‐the‐art methods of statistics, we demonstrate that the proposed anticipatory patterns cannot be distinguished from random patterns, and consequently, the observed anomalies in animal activity do not have any forecasting power.