The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Kreibich, H.; Loon, Anne F. Van; Schröter, Kai; Ward, Philip J.; Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Sairam, N.; Abeshu, Guta Wakbulcho; Agafonova, Svetlana; AghaKouchak, Amir; Aksoy, Hafzullah; Alvarez-Garreton, Camila; Aznar, Blanca; Balkhi, Laila; Barendrecht, Marlies H.; Biancamaria, Sylvain; Bos-Burgering, Liduin; Bradley, Chris; Budiyono, Yus; Buytaert, Wouter; Capewell, Lucinda; Carlson, Hayley; Cavus, Yonca; Couasnon, Anaïs; Coxon, Gemma; Daliakopoulos, Ioannis; de Ruiter, Marleen C.; Delus, Claire; Erfurt, Mathilde; Esposito, Giuseppe; François, Didier; Frappart, Frédéric; Freer, Jim; Frolova, Natalia; Gain, Animesh K.; Grillakis, Manolis; Grima, Jordi Oriol; Guzmán, Diego A.; Huning, Laurie S.; Ionita, Monica; Kharlamov, Maxim; Khoi, Dao Nguyen; Kieboom, Natalie; Kireeva, Maria; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo; Li, Hong-Yi; LLasat, María Carmen; Macdonald, David; Mård, Johanna; Mathew-Richards, Hannah; McKenzie, Andrew; Mejia, Alfonso; Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario; Mens, Marjolein; Mobini, Shifteh; Mohor, Guilherme Samprogna; Nagavciuc, Viorica; Ngo-Duc, Thanh; Huynh, Thi Thao Nguyen; Nhi, Pham Thi Thao; Petrucci, Olga; Nguyen, Hong Quan; Quintana-Seguí, Pere; Razavi, Saman; Ridolfi, Elena; Riegel, Jannik; Sadik, Md Shibly; Savelli, Elisa; Sazonov, Alexey; Sharma, Sanjib; Sörensen, Johanna; Souza, Felipe Augusto Arguello; Stahl, Kerstin; Steinhausen, Max; Stoelzle, Michael; Szalińska, Wiwiana; Tang, Qiuhong; Tian, Fuqiang; Tokarczyk, Tamara; Tovar, Carolina; Tran, Thi Van Thu; Huijgevoort, Marjolein H. J. Van; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Vorogushyn, S.; Wagener, Thorsten; Wang, Yueling; Wendt, Doris E.; Wickham, Elliot; Yang, Long; Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Blöschl, Günter

doi:10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5

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学術論文

The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Authors

/persons/resource/kreib

Kreibich, H.
4.4 Hydrology, 4.0 Geosystems, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Loon, Anne F. Van
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/kschroet

Schröter, Kai
4.4 Hydrology, 4.0 Geosystems, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Ward, Philip J.
External Organizations;

Mazzoleni, Maurizio
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/nivedita

Sairam, N.
4.4 Hydrology, 4.0 Geosystems, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Abeshu, Guta Wakbulcho
External Organizations;

Agafonova, Svetlana
External Organizations;

AghaKouchak, Amir
External Organizations;

Aksoy, Hafzullah
External Organizations;

Alvarez-Garreton, Camila
External Organizations;

Aznar, Blanca
External Organizations;

Balkhi, Laila
External Organizations;

Barendrecht, Marlies H.
External Organizations;

Biancamaria, Sylvain
External Organizations;

Bos-Burgering, Liduin
External Organizations;

Bradley, Chris
External Organizations;

Budiyono, Yus
External Organizations;

Buytaert, Wouter
External Organizations;

Capewell, Lucinda
External Organizations;

Carlson, Hayley
External Organizations;

Cavus, Yonca
External Organizations;

Couasnon, Anaïs
External Organizations;

Coxon, Gemma
External Organizations;

Daliakopoulos, Ioannis
External Organizations;

de Ruiter, Marleen C.
External Organizations;

Delus, Claire
External Organizations;

Erfurt, Mathilde
External Organizations;

Esposito, Giuseppe
External Organizations;

François, Didier
External Organizations;

Frappart, Frédéric
External Organizations;

Freer, Jim
External Organizations;

Frolova, Natalia
External Organizations;

Gain, Animesh K.
External Organizations;

Grillakis, Manolis
External Organizations;

Grima, Jordi Oriol
External Organizations;

Guzmán, Diego A.
External Organizations;

Huning, Laurie S.
External Organizations;

Ionita, Monica
External Organizations;

Kharlamov, Maxim
External Organizations;

Khoi, Dao Nguyen
External Organizations;

Kieboom, Natalie
External Organizations;

Kireeva, Maria
External Organizations;

Koutroulis, Aristeidis
External Organizations;

Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo
External Organizations;

Li, Hong-Yi
External Organizations;

LLasat, María Carmen
External Organizations;

Macdonald, David
External Organizations;

Mård, Johanna
External Organizations;

Mathew-Richards, Hannah
External Organizations;

McKenzie, Andrew
External Organizations;

Mejia, Alfonso
External Organizations;

Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario
External Organizations;

Mens, Marjolein
External Organizations;

Mobini, Shifteh
External Organizations;

Mohor, Guilherme Samprogna
External Organizations;

Nagavciuc, Viorica
External Organizations;

Ngo-Duc, Thanh
External Organizations;

Huynh, Thi Thao Nguyen
External Organizations;

Nhi, Pham Thi Thao
External Organizations;

Petrucci, Olga
External Organizations;

Nguyen, Hong Quan
External Organizations;

Quintana-Seguí, Pere
External Organizations;

Razavi, Saman
External Organizations;

Ridolfi, Elena
External Organizations;

Riegel, Jannik
External Organizations;

Sadik, Md Shibly
External Organizations;

Savelli, Elisa
External Organizations;

Sazonov, Alexey
External Organizations;

Sharma, Sanjib
External Organizations;

Sörensen, Johanna
External Organizations;

Souza, Felipe Augusto Arguello
External Organizations;

Stahl, Kerstin
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/mstein

Steinhausen, Max
4.4 Hydrology, 4.0 Geosystems, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Stoelzle, Michael
External Organizations;

Szalińska, Wiwiana
External Organizations;

Tang, Qiuhong
External Organizations;

Tian, Fuqiang
External Organizations;

Tokarczyk, Tamara
External Organizations;

Tovar, Carolina
External Organizations;

Tran, Thi Van Thu
External Organizations;

Huijgevoort, Marjolein H. J. Van
External Organizations;

van Vliet, Michelle T. H.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/vorogus

Vorogushyn, S.
4.4 Hydrology, 4.0 Geosystems, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Wagener, Thorsten
External Organizations;

Wang, Yueling
External Organizations;

Wendt, Doris E.
External Organizations;

Wickham, Elliot
External Organizations;

Yang, Long
External Organizations;

Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio
External Organizations;

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
External Organizations;

Blöschl, Günter
External Organizations;

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5012079.pdf
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引用

Kreibich, H., Loon, A. F. V., Schröter, K., Ward, P. J., Mazzoleni, M., Sairam, N., Abeshu, G. W., Agafonova, S., AghaKouchak, A., Aksoy, H., Alvarez-Garreton, C., Aznar, B., Balkhi, L., Barendrecht, M. H., Biancamaria, S., Bos-Burgering, L., Bradley, C., Budiyono, Y., Buytaert, W., Capewell, L., Carlson, H., Cavus, Y., Couasnon, A., Coxon, G., Daliakopoulos, I., de Ruiter, M. C., Delus, C., Erfurt, M., Esposito, G., François, D., Frappart, F., Freer, J., Frolova, N., Gain, A. K., Grillakis, M., Grima, J. O., Guzmán, D. A., Huning, L. S., Ionita, M., Kharlamov, M., Khoi, D. N., Kieboom, N., Kireeva, M., Koutroulis, A., Lavado-Casimiro, W., Li, H.-Y., LLasat, M. C., Macdonald, D., Mård, J., Mathew-Richards, H., McKenzie, A., Mejia, A., Mendiondo, E. M., Mens, M., Mobini, S., Mohor, G. S., Nagavciuc, V., Ngo-Duc, T., Huynh, T. T. N., Nhi, P. T. T., Petrucci, O., Nguyen, H. Q., Quintana-Seguí, P., Razavi, S., Ridolfi, E., Riegel, J., Sadik, M. S., Savelli, E., Sazonov, A., Sharma, S., Sörensen, J., Souza, F. A. A., Stahl, K., Steinhausen, M., Stoelzle, M., Szalińska, W., Tang, Q., Tian, F., Tokarczyk, T., Tovar, C., Tran, T. V. T., Huijgevoort, M. H. J. V., van Vliet, M. T. H., Vorogushyn, S., Wagener, T., Wang, Y., Wendt, D. E., Wickham, E., Yang, L., Zambrano-Bigiarini, M., Di Baldassarre, G., & Blöschl, G. (2022). The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management. Nature, 608, 80-86. doi:10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5.

引用: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5012079

要旨

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change