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The timing of decreasing coastal flood protection due to sea-level rise

Authors

Hermans,  Tim
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Malagon-Santós,  Víctor
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Katsman,  Caroline
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Jane,  Robert
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Rasmussen,  Dj
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Haasnoot,  Marjolijn
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Garner,  Gregory
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Kopp,  Robert
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Oppenheimer,  Michael
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Slangen,  Aimée
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Hermans, T., Malagon-Santós, V., Katsman, C., Jane, R., Rasmussen, D., Haasnoot, M., Garner, G., Kopp, R., Oppenheimer, M., Slangen, A. (2023): The timing of decreasing coastal flood protection due to sea-level rise, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-0413


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5016028
Abstract
Sea-level rise (SLR) causes the frequency of extreme sea levels to amplify. Projections of the frequency amplification of extremes are often computed for arbitrary future years and for the historical centennial event. Such projections may therefore not provide salient information to adaptation planners, as they do not indicate when certain flood risk thresholds will be crossed given the current degree of local coastal flood protection. To better support adaptation planning, we introduce a framework that extends the emerging timing perspective on sea-level rise to the frequency amplification of extreme sea levels. Moreover, by relating amplification factors to model estimates of local flood protection standards, we project the timing of a range of decreases in the local degree of protection. The projections are based on tide gauge observations (GESLA3) and relative sea-level projections of IPCC AR6 until 2150. Our central estimates indicate that the estimated degrees of protection will on average be exceeded 10 times more frequently within the next 30 years (the lead time that large adaptation measures may take) at 26 & 32% of the tide gauges considered, and annually at 4 & 8%, for respectively a low & high emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6 & SSP3-7.0). Furthermore, in scenarios in which sea-level rise will accelerate, the same decreases in the degree of coastal protection will occur substantially faster in the future. Our projection framework may help adaptation planners to assess the available lead time and useful lifetime of protective infrastructure, given unacceptable decreases in the degree of coastal protection.