Predictive ability of a linear theoretical model for the time-varying 
circulation in the Nordic seas and Arctic Ocean

Sjur, Anna Lina Petruseviciute; Isachsen, Pål Erik; Nilsson, Johan; Ryseth, Magnus Dyrmose; Lacasce, Joseph Henry

doi:10.57757/IUGG23-1752

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Predictive ability of a linear theoretical model for the time-varying circulation in the Nordic seas and Arctic Ocean

Authors

Sjur, Anna Lina Petruseviciute
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Isachsen, Pål Erik
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Nilsson, Johan
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Ryseth, Magnus Dyrmose
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Lacasce, Joseph Henry
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Sjur, A. L. P., Isachsen, P. E., Nilsson, J., Ryseth, M. D., Lacasce, J. H. (2023): Predictive ability of a linear theoretical model for the time-varying circulation in the Nordic seas and Arctic Ocean, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-1752

Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5017839

Abstract

In this study, we re-examine the use of an existing theoretical model for predicting the time-variable large-scale circulation along contours of constant ambient potential vorticity, given by f/H, in the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean. The theoretical model is an integral relation derived from the linear depth-averaged shallow water equations, and assumes that the circulation is driven by surface stresses and regulated by bottom drag. By applying this simplified model to a high-resolution numerical simulation, we assess its ability to accurately predict the circulation. Improvements from earlier examinations include better parametrization of stresses in ice-covered regions and higher resolution in the numerical simulation. Our results show that the linear model agrees well with the complex model. This indicates that much of the variability in the large-scale circulation can be explained by linear processes. However, we find that the performance of the linear model depends on the direction of the circulation, with the linear model overestimating anti-cyclonic circulation. This suggests that additional processes, not captured in the linear model, play a crucial role in anti-cyclonic circulation.