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Towards physically consistent sea level rise storylines for the United Kingdom

Authors

Palmer,  Matt
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Gregory,  Jonathan
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Harrison,  Benjamin
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Lowe,  Jason
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Weeks,  Jennifer
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Palmer, M., Gregory, J., Harrison, B., Lowe, J., Weeks, J. (2023): Towards physically consistent sea level rise storylines for the United Kingdom, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-2029


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5018845
Abstract
There is increasing awareness of the need for comprehensive information on potential future sea level rise to inform adaptation planning and coastal decision making. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) states that global mean sea level (GMSL) rise approaching 5 m by 2150, and more than 15 m by 2300, cannot be ruled out under high greenhouse gas emissions due to uncertainty in ice sheet processes. However, current guidance on high-end sea level rise for the United Kingdom (UK) advises users to plan for up to 1.9 m of sea-level rise by 2100 with no explicit consideration of long-term commitment. This work aims to provide a framework to accommodate updated high-end sea level rise guidance that extends to 2300. We combine the Monte Carlo methods used in the latest national sea level projections (UKCP18) with recently published projections of Antarctic ice mass loss to develop a small set of physically consistent storylines of local sea level rise. The storylines span the range of GMSL rise uncertainty at 2300 assessed by AR6 and provide continuous sea level rise information around the UK coast. For a given storyline, the relative contribution from Antarctica and Greenland is an important determinant of the UK rise. While we focus on the UK, the methods are generic and can be readily applied to other geographic locations.